Monkey Stocks – 3 Years on

Anyone around when I announced the winner of my Monkey Stocks League Challenge?

Anyway, as promised in my 2-year update, I bring you the ‘what happened next after 3 years’ update.

Monkey Stocks?

Here’s how I came up with the idea of running my own Monkey Stocks League Challenge.

The majority of the £500 portfolios (consisting of 5 stocks each) which lined up in September 2015 were made up of stocks/shares (from FTSE 350) and were randomly picked out of a hat.

A handful of daft brave souls followed me in purchasing their random stocks for real!

The league also had a couple of portfolios chosen by experts (John K and Huw) and of course, we had M’s infamous portfolio, based on the Dogs of the FTSE strategy, which was the runaway winner of the league after both 1 and 2 years.

One Year vs Two Years vs Three Years

As a reminder, here’s how the top 10 finished after Year 1:

Here’s how the top ten (and the rest of the league) looked after Year 2:

And here are the scores on the doors after Year 3:

Zombie annihilation, with Mr Z’s Undead Monkey Fund taking the top spot, more than doubling his initial investment.

What’s in the winning portfolio?

Three not-so-great shares but the humongous gain (and dividend) from Evraz (EVR) more than made up for those losses (apparently, Roman Abramovich is a majority shareholder – only just found that out!). Of course, EVR is also one of my own Dogs of the FTSE shares…

Anyway, after one year, only 8 portfolios made gains of >10% and there were 10 portfolios showing losses.

After two years, 17 portfolios made gains of >10% (12 of them >20%) and there were only 3 portfolios showing very small losses.

After three years, again, 17 portfolios made gains of >10% (14 of them >20%), with 5 portfolios showing losses.

John K’s Pigmamig Fund was one of those which ended up in the negative after 3 years, but had this been a real portfolio, I’m sure John would have gotten rid of some/all of those stocks to minimise/avoid losses using his own investing strategy.

Still Steady Eddy

Mention must be made of diy’s Mutley’s Magic Formula fund which continued to maintain its steady process and remained in the top 10. This fund was based on Vanguard’s 60% LifeStrategy Fund, ending up with a gain of 34%. Definitely one for the passive investors and one which I will invest in myself.

Random Strategy?

Of course, as before, in no way am I recommending that randomly selecting stocks is a viable investing strategy, though I find it’s a fascinating one, which appeals to my gambling curious nature!

Did my experiment show that randomly picking shares ‘might not’ result in disaster?

It could have all gone horribly wrong, especially as you could have been unlucky and ended up picking Carillion…

Alternatively, fortune could have shone on you and you could have randomly chosen ones like this lot and celebrated seeing your investment quadruple:

Or you could get something in between and according to the experiment, that doesn’t look too bad, with the average gain being 29% over 3 years. Better than sitting 3 years in a cash ISA

Of course, we have seen the FTSE breaking records these past three years. What would  have happened if there was a big Bear market?

No More Updates

A 3-year measurement still isn’t great for a buy and hold strategy but this will be my last update for this league. Whilst the first year was fun (especially as there was a trophy at stake!), it was a complete chore getting all the dividends for the 100+ companies, plus I had to find out what happened to companies which were bought out/sold, changed names or were no longer trading.

I’m still very much interested in the random walk theory in relation to investing so I won’t rule out creating another small experimental portfolio in the future (and again with real money).  Sorry, I won’t be running another such league though – far too much effort and not nearly enough people with skin in the game!

Anyway, I hope you’ve enjoyed this experiment and if after your own research you fancy running something similar, I’d be interested to hear about it!

Dogs of The FTSE – Q2 (2018)

It’s been around 6 months since I set up my second experimental Dogs of the FTSE portfolio, so it’s time for another quick update.

Note that this is not part of my main investing strategy, it’s just a ‘fun’ part of my portfolio but any dividends earned are reinvested.

So how have these unloved shares done?

As at close of trading on 20th July 2018, the portfolio was showing a 10.84% gain from its starting value.

Including dividends received, it’s a 14.44% gain.

Over the same period, the FTSE 100 Total Return was 7.95% so the Dogs are still looking good on both counts so far.

However, since we know that anything can happen to make the markets jittery (trade wars, for example…), I’m not celebrating just yet!

Next update in another 3 months’ time!

Dogs of The FTSE – Q1 (2018)

 

Just a quick update as it’s been around 3 months since I set up my second experimental Dogs of the FTSE portfolio.

Before we look at how the ‘mutts’ have done, note that this is not part of my main investment strategy – it’s just a bit of fun, although I do reinvest all dividends I get from these ‘dogs’, which go towards helping to increase my overall portfolio.

 

As at close of trading on 11th May 2018, the portfolio was showing a 12% gain from its starting value.

Including dividends received, it’s a 14.15% gain.

Over the same period, the FTSE 100 Total Return was 8.03% so the Dogs have gotten off to a great start on both counts!

All the dogs are showing gains, apart from BT, who recently announced the loss of 13,000 jobs. Some good dividends paid out already, notably from Evraz and Persimmon.

Well, that’s it really, until the next update – riveting stuff 🙂

Good Riddance Dogs 2017, Hello Dogs 2018

Just my luck that as I reach the twelve month mark for my experimental Dogs of the FTSE portfolio, things go all pear-shaped in the markets!

Whilst I have largely avoided reading all about the hysteria, it was difficult to ignore the headlines describing the small downturn with words such as ‘TURMOIL’, ‘BLOODBATH’ and ‘CARNAGE’!

I didn’t worry about my Future Fund – I’ve no idea how much it’s dropped by as I’ll be running my usual numbers at the end of the month, but I did think about how it was going to affect my little Dogs portfolio.

Capita (CPI) in particular suffered in a spectacular fashion – I know it hasn’t been in the FTSE 100 for a while but they were one of the top yield stocks when I started the portfolio so I was committed to purchase and hold them for the year. Oh dear, indeed!

As a reminder, here’s the Dogs of the FTSE strategy:

  1. Choose the ten FTSE 100 shares with the highest yield (subject to my criteria*)
  2. Invest equal amounts in all ten shares
  3. Hold for a year (give or take a week)
  4. At the end of the year, sell the ones no longer in the top ten, replace with new shares with highest yield
  5. Repeat from step 3

[*criteria being that shares already in my portfolio are not included, nor any where a dividend cut has been announced]

Here’s how the 2017 portfolio finished:

Not pretty – Capita wiped out my total gains all by itself, yet back in July, it was showing a 25% gain, not including dividend paid. Gosh, I probably doomed the stock by saying that it was ‘showing its pedigree’ in that post – little did I know how the mighty would fall!

So, including dividends, only a paltry 1% gain for the entire portfolio! OUCH!

However, over this same period, the FTSE 100 Total Return was only 0.81% so despite the Dogs being a disappointing let down, they marginally did better, haha! Without dividends though, they seriously under-performed with a 4.35% loss.

What’s Next?

What’s next is the 2018 portfolio!

Oh yes, I’m going to put myself through this again in the name of err, ‘financial science’ and hope there won’t be Turmoil, Carnage or Bloodbaths this time round, nor any spectacular Capita-style demises!

So, in accordance with the strategy:

Dogs Set Free (Sold):

  • AstraZeneca plc (AZN)
  • Capita Plc (CPI)
  • HSBC plc (HSBA)
  • Intu Properties plc (INTU)
  • Royal Mail plc (RMG)
  • Standard Life Aberdeen plc (SLA)

Total received from sales = £1298.38

Total Dividends paid out = £76.96

Profit/Loss from original investment = -£92.45 or -6.3% – ouch!

It was not easy at all pushing the ‘sell’ button for some of those but I am committed to the strategy.

Dogs Rounded Up (Bought): 

  • BT Group plc (BT.A)
  • Imperial Brands Group (IMB)
  • Evraz plc (EVR)
  • National Grid (NG.)
  • United Utilities Group Plc (UU.)
  • Rio Tinto plc (RIO)

Wrong time to sell, right time to buy? Who knows!? I’m not timing the market.

So here’s how the Dogs of the FTSE Portfolio 2018 starting lineup looks as at 12th Feb 2018:

Best of breed or mangy mutts?

Hmmm…for some reason I don’t feel quite as confident as I did this time last year, but we shall see in 12 months time and as before, I’ll be doing quarterly updates.

Lessons Learned?

I’m not sure I’ve learned anything from running this experiment after just one year, though I must say that I thought the portfolio was going to do better. I guess if I hadn’t been following the strategy, I’m not sure I would have sold some of those stocks.

Let’s see how it goes after a few more experiments.