Stand up, if you love the DARTS!

Back in January, there was the usual update of Monevator’s Asset Allocation Quilt, a technicolour depiction of the best performance of various different asset classes over the years.

I’ve always been fascinated at seeing which sectors did well. Anyone see any trends? Just a random pattern, right?

Apart from broad commodities being top performers two years in a row (2021 and 2022), it seems like it’s always a different top performer each year.

US equities (S&P 500) have come second 5 times out of the last 10 years and are the top performer in 10 year annualised returns.

The top 3 for 2024 were Gold, US equites (S&P 500) and Global equities. Who would have predicted that in 2023? And what would your predictions be for 2025?

I commented against the update:

Anyway @TA, I did just that – printed off your quilt and stuck it on my dartboard:

My darts throwing is still on the dangerous/lethal side, but only one dart went astray and missed completely, while the other attempts landed first go.

Alas, I hadn’t accounted for what I would do if a dart landed right on the line, between two assets, so I’m just going to present them as an ‘or’:

So the best performers for 2025, as per the darts, will be:

1 – Gold or Emerging Markets

2 – Long Gilts or Intermediate Gilts

3 – Intermediate US Treasuries

Hmm, can Gold really top two years in a row? And what no US equities in the top 3? The last time that happened was 2022.

Anyway, let’s look out for Monevator’s update next year to see how true/rubbish the darts were!

Magnificent Monkey returns!

Long standing readers might recall the Monkey Stocks League challenge I ran which was last updated in 2018?

Basically, I had the idea of readers of my blog/investors competing in a league with £500 portfolios (made up of 5 stocks from FTSE 350).

The stocks would be randomly picked out of a hat (which was done during a face-to-face FIRE meet up in a pub in York), but a number of people joined me in actually buying their stocks for real.

It was all for a bit of fun and was inspired by Burton Malkiel’s book, ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street‘, where he talked about his theory that blind-folded monkeys throwing darts to pick stocks could perform better than expert stock pickers.

Anyway, with my dartboard out and my throwing arm at the ready, I thought it was time for an updated version of the challenge (just for me this time however). A sheet of the US 500 stocks (randomly sorted) was duly printed off…

So, seven darts to create my own ‘Magnificent Seven Monkey Stocks‘!

As ever, my market timing was astoundingly atrocious, but how could I have known the bottom would fall out of the markets, just after I had bought! Oh well, haha!


The stocks picked by the darts were as follows:

MAT – Mattel Inc
NWL – Newell Brands Inc
STZ – Constellation Brands, Inc
LLY – Eli Lilly & Co
GIS – General Mills Inc
PG – Procter & Gamble Co
HBAN – Huntington Bancshares Inc

There are a couple I hadn’t heard of before but I stuck £100 in each one and will see what happens.

No plan on what to do next. Keep them for a year? Sell when I get x% gains? I guess I’ll just do what I do best, which is to hold for now.

The portfolio’s currently down by -7.09% right now but pretty much everything is down, so nothing unusual.

Let’s hope the darts have predicted ‘great fortune’ for my Magnificent Monkey Stocks! 😀

 

Ravaged Dogs of the FTSE and Random Shares update

Firstly, I hope eveyone is keeping safe and calm, washing their hands and not been caught short by the mad people stock-piling toilet paper, pasta and paracetamol.

Upon family advice, I’ve been making sure bit by bit that my essentials have been topped up since January, because they warned that there would be idiots who would be hording like it’s the apocalypse.

The stock markets continue to be in chaos, so it’s an interesting time to update my experimental Dogs of the FTSE portfolio. As someone who’s only really invested during a great bull run, I think it’s important to try to document the bad as well as the good!

My poorly mutts weren’t doing particularly well in my first update and things now look pretty dire. Only Persimmon (PSN) is seemingly doing well, still building houses despite everything that is going on in the world.

The FTSE 100 Total Return was minus 10% over the same period so the Dogs are doing worse at minus 16.33%. Even if I include dividends received, it’s a loss of 12.88%. Ouch!

Just one more update to go in June for this portfolio, probably not really enough time for the markets to recover and for my dogs to lick their wounds, but we’ll see. All I can do is to just collect the dividends and hope my losses will be at a minimum.

As I’ve mentioned previously, this is not a strategy I would recommend to anyone, this is my own fun experiment, although it’s really no fun at all looking at all the red numbers.

Cheerful Randomness

Like last time, to cheer myself up, I will take a look at my Random Share Portfolio, which I first mentioned here.

This portfolio is made up of free shares awarded to me whenever someone signs up via my Freetrade affiliate link, bagging themselves a free share in the process. Freetrade is an investing app which (since 28th Feb 2020) allows you to buy and sell instantly for free. Link is here* if you are interested.

Might be an opportunity for those who want to take advantage of some cheap stocks and not have to pay a trading fee.

Anyway, here are a few of the free random shares I’ve been awarded since the last update:

And here’s what the full portfolio currently looks like:

Still waiting for that Tesla or Netflix share to drop, but as mentioned previously, I’m well happy with all my free shares. Most of them are ones I would never have considered buying, only because I wasn’t even aware of them.

I’ve actually sold a couple of the shares (when they gained 50%) and just ploughed the cash into a random share I already owned.

I think I’ll just keep them (mostly) and see what happens.

Anyway, keep calm and carry on investing.

*referral/affiliate link

Dogs Nightmare and Random Shares update

I didn’t get round to doing my quarterly update for my experimental Dogs of the FTSE portfolio so thought I’d do a first ‘trimester’ update instead.

Suffice to say that the poor mutts really don’t look too healthy, mostly milling about negatively in turmoil.

Evraz plc in particular is looking extremely woeful, showing a massive loss since this portfolio start, despite showing huge gains in the previous year.

ITV leads the pack with a semi-decent gain but for how long!?

That said, the FTSE 100 Total Return was minus 1.3% over the same period so the Dogs aren’t too far behind with a loss of 1.83%, when you include dividends received (loss of 4.7% without dividends).

But it’s still early days yet, anything can happen in 8 months – yes, I know it could get worse but I’m being opimistic so see the future as being bright(ish)! In the meantime, I shall continue to collect their dividends.

As I’ve mentioned previously, this is not a strategy I would recommend to anyone, this is my own fun experiment, although I can’t say it’s a lot of fun looking at all the red numbers right now.

Cheerful Randomness

To cheer myself up, I will take a look at my Random Share Portfolio, which I first mentioned here.

This portfolio is made up of free shares awarded to me whenever someone signs up via my Freetrade affiliate link, bagging themselves a free share in the process. Link is here* if you are interested.

Here are a couple of the recent free random shares I’ve been awarded.

And here’s what the full portfolio currently looks like:

Still waiting for that Tesla or Netflix share to drop haha, but the fact is, I’m well happy with all my free shares. Most of them are ones I would never have considered buying, only because I wasn’t even aware of them.

I was particularly happy to receive shares for IShares S&P Global Clean Energy ETF (INRG) as I didn’t know there was such an ETF, never mind that it was available on Freetrade.

INRG tracks the performance of an index composed of 30 of the largest global companies involved in the clean energy sector. I think I will add to this as I’d like to increase my holding of more environmentally-friendly investments bit by bit.

Am still undecided as to what I want to do with this portfolio, ie sell or keep the shares.

For now, I think I’ll just leave them (mostly) and maybe decide on what to do in the new year. Although I missed out on the Aston Martin £10/per share payout because I didn’t reach the minimum criteria (only 1 share!) so I may get rid of that one soon.

Anyone with any thoughts on which ones I should get rid of and why?

*referral/affiliate link

My Random Share Portfolio, plus Meet Up Reminder

Long term readers may recall my fascination with randomness and investing.

One of the first ‘investing’ books I read was Burton G Makiel’s ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’.

You know, the one where he mentions that a bunch of blind-folded monkeys could do better than expert stockpickers. This fascination and curiosity led me to running my own Monkey Stocks League, where I had my own randomly picked portfolio.

Time has meant that I no longer run the league but I now find myself in another position to have a part of my portfolio which is made up of random stocks.

Enter Freetrade

For those interested, here’s my review of Freetrade.

As a result of Freetrade’s referral scheme and thanks to interested souls clicking on my links, I now have a tidy little portfolio of random shares.

Basically, every time someone I refer signs up, we both get a free share. Here’s a screenshot of some of the freebies I’ve received:

I’ve yet to be awarded a high value share – some people have received Tesla shares, worth around £190!!

Here’s my entire portfolio so far:

I’m not sure what I’m going to do with these – maybe hang on to some of them, maybe sell some of them.

If I sell some, perhaps I’ll use the funds to buy more of the ones I’m keeping…

Anyone interested in a great investing app plus a free share, and (edit – since 28th Feb 2020) able to buy and sell for free, whilst helping me grow my random portfolio, please download the app via my link*

I currently have a ‘mystery’ share queueing, courtesy of Tony from One Million Journey – thanks for using the link, Tony and fingers crossed we get good shares! 🙂

FIRE Meet Up Reminder

Just a reminder of the Manchester FIRE meet up next Friday, 27th Sept.

It’s taking place in the ‘Well Area’ of the Rain Bar, 80 Great Bridgewater Street, Manchester, M1 5JG.

6pm – late

Hopefully see a few of you there for a few beers and some pub grub (you don’t want to see me drinking on an emtpy stomach!).

[*referral link]