Back in January, there was the usual update of Monevator’s Asset Allocation Quilt, a technicolour depiction of the best performance of various different asset classes over the years.
I’ve always been fascinated at seeing which sectors did well. Anyone see any trends? Just a random pattern, right?
Apart from broad commodities being top performers two years in a row (2021 and 2022), it seems like it’s always a different top performer each year.
US equities (S&P 500) have come second 5 times out of the last 10 years and are the top performer in 10 year annualised returns.
The top 3 for 2024 were Gold, US equites (S&P 500) and Global equities. Who would have predicted that in 2023? And what would your predictions be for 2025?
I commented against the update:
Anyway @TA, I did just that – printed off your quilt and stuck it on my dartboard:
My darts throwing is still on the dangerous/lethal side, but only one dart went astray and missed completely, while the other attempts landed first go.
Alas, I hadn’t accounted for what I would do if a dart landed right on the line, between two assets, so I’m just going to present them as an ‘or’:
So the best performers for 2025, as per the darts, will be:
1 – Gold or Emerging Markets
2 – Long Gilts or Intermediate Gilts
3 – Intermediate US Treasuries
Hmm, can Gold really top two years in a row? And what no US equities in the top 3? The last time that happened was 2022.
Anyway, let’s look out for Monevator’s update next year to see how true/rubbish the darts were!
Magnificent Monkey returns!
Long standing readers might recall the Monkey Stocks League challenge I ran which was last updated in 2018?
Basically, I had the idea of readers of my blog/investors competing in a league with £500 portfolios (made up of 5 stocks from FTSE 350).
The stocks would be randomly picked out of a hat (which was done during a face-to-face FIRE meet up in a pub in York), but a number of people joined me in actually buying their stocks for real.
It was all for a bit of fun and was inspired by Burton Malkiel’s book, ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street‘, where he talked about his theory that blind-folded monkeys throwing darts to pick stocks could perform better than expert stock pickers.
Anyway, with my dartboard out and my throwing arm at the ready, I thought it was time for an updated version of the challenge (just for me this time however). A sheet of the US 500 stocks (randomly sorted) was duly printed off…
So, seven darts to create my own ‘Magnificent Seven Monkey Stocks‘!
As ever, my market timing was astoundingly atrocious, but how could I have known the bottom would fall out of the markets, just after I had bought! Oh well, haha!
The stocks picked by the darts were as follows:
MAT – Mattel Inc
NWL – Newell Brands Inc
STZ – Constellation Brands, Inc
LLY – Eli Lilly & Co
GIS – General Mills Inc
PG – Procter & Gamble Co
HBAN – Huntington Bancshares Inc
There are a couple I hadn’t heard of before but I stuck £100 in each one and will see what happens.
No plan on what to do next. Keep them for a year? Sell when I get x% gains? I guess I’ll just do what I do best, which is to hold for now.
The portfolio’s currently down by -7.09% right now but pretty much everything is down, so nothing unusual.
Let’s hope the darts have predicted ‘great fortune’ for my Magnificent Monkey Stocks! 😀












